Working the funnel backwards
Most funnel math runs forwards: “we get X visitors, so we’ll close Y deals.” Planning runs the other way. You start from the revenue target and ask what the top of the funnel has to look like to hit it.
Enter your revenue target, average deal value, and the conversion rate at each stage, and the calculator walks backwards through the funnel:
- Customers needed = revenue target ÷ average deal value
- SQLs needed = customers ÷ SQL-to-customer rate
- MQLs needed = SQLs ÷ MQL-to-SQL rate
- Leads needed = MQLs ÷ lead-to-MQL rate
- Visitors needed = leads ÷ visitor-to-lead rate
It also splits the result into weekly and daily pacing targets so you can tell within the first weeks whether the period is on track — long before revenue numbers would tell you.
A worked example
A $150,000 monthly target at a $6,000 average deal needs 25 customers. At a 25% SQL-to-customer rate that’s 100 SQLs; at 40% MQL-to-SQL, 250 MQLs; at 35% lead-to-MQL, ~715 leads; and at a 2.5% visitor-to-lead rate, about 28,600 visitors. Small rate changes compound dramatically — lifting visitor-to-lead from 2.5% to 3% cuts the required traffic by nearly 5,000 visitors with no change in spend further down the funnel.
Where to get your conversion rates
Use trailing actuals from your CRM and analytics — ideally a 3–6 month window so one unusual month doesn’t skew the plan. If you’re too early to have data, start with deliberately conservative assumptions and replace them with actuals as they accumulate. The funnel stage definitions matter more than the precise numbers: everyone on the team must agree on what counts as an MQL and an SQL, or the rates are meaningless.
Frequently asked questions
What are MQLs and SQLs?
A marketing qualified lead (MQL) is a lead that meets your marketing team’s criteria for genuine interest and fit — typically based on behaviour and profile. A sales qualified lead (SQL) is one that sales has accepted as a real opportunity worth working. The exact definitions vary by company; consistency is what matters.
My funnel has different stages. Can I still use this?
Yes — the math is the same chain of divisions regardless of labels. Map your stages onto the four rate inputs in order. If you have fewer stages, set the unused rate to 100%.
Should I use pipeline or closed revenue as the target?
Closed revenue is what the calculator models. If you plan against pipeline targets instead, divide your pipeline goal by your average win rate first, or simply enter pipeline as the target and treat “customers” as “opportunities.”
The visitor number looks impossibly high. What now?
That’s the calculator doing its job. You have three levers: improve a conversion rate (usually the cheapest fix — even small lifts at the top compound), raise the average deal value, or lower the target. Once you know the cost of the traffic you do buy, the marketing KPI calculator tells you what each stage costs per lead and per customer.